Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: a Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy

摘要

We examine the role of rainfall trends in poor growth performance of sub-Saharan African nations relative to other developing countries,using a new cross-country panel climatic data set in an empiricaleconomic growth framework. Our results show that rainfall has been asignificant determinant of poor economic growth for African nations butnot for other countries. Depending on the benchmark measure of potentialrainfall, we estimate that the direct impact under the scenario of no declinein rainfall would have resulted in a reduction of between around 15% and40% of today¿s gap in African GDP per capita relative to the rest of thedeveloping world.